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Flu Forecasting Website Posts First Predictions

Ongoing flu season predicted to peak in January for most of U.S. (January 13)

Infectious disease experts at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health have launched a website that reports weekly predictions for rates of seasonal influenza in 94 cities in the U.S. based on a scientifically validated system. The URL is: cpid.iri.columbia.edu.

Reporting the latest data from the week of December 29, 2013 through January 4, 2014, the website — Columbia Prediction of Infectious Diseases: Influenza Forecasts (CPID) — shows:

  • Flu cases in most of the country are forecast to peak in January, including San Francisco (Jan. 5–11), Chicago (Jan. 12–18), Atlanta (Jan. 12–18), Washington, D.C. (Jan. 12–18), Los Angeles (Jan. 12–18), New York City (Jan. 19–25), and Boston (Jan. 26–Feb. 1)
  • Flu cases are predicted to continue to rise into February for several cities, peaking in Miami during the week of Feb. 2–8 and in Providence, Rhode Island, during Feb. 16–22.
  • Areas of the country hardest hit by seasonal flu — including Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Nevada — have already seen the worst of the outbreak.
  • Overall, the 2013–2014 flu season is currently predicted to peak later, with fewer cases, than the 2012–2013 season but with considerably more severe disease than the 2011–2012 season.

Source: Mailman School of Public Health; January 13, 2014.

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